You don’t have to be a psychic to grok that the winds of change are blowing hard in the open source world. For the last few months, I’ve seen hints and heard whispers about a new direction for what I believe is the most passionate and enthusiastic community in tech. I think we are about to sail off into unchartered territory—and it will be interesting to see what the repercussions are.
Of course, this will all play out against the backdrop of continued layoffs and belt-tightening in the broader tech sector. Before I detail what I think are the telltale signals of change, let me state that I am and have always been a big supporter of open source software. I firmly believe we live in a golden age for open source software, which I call the “Foundation era of open source.” At a time when 90% plus of organizations use open source software, many of the leading open source projects are under the domain of not-for-profit foundations (NFPs) such as the Linux Foundation, the Apache Foundation, etc. This allows multiple commercial companies who might otherwise compete with each other to work in coop-etition. This has, in many ways, enabled this golden age of open source. Prior to the Foundation era of open source, there were two prior dominant models. Initially, there was what I call the “Cathedral and Bazaar era,” named after the great book by Eric Raymond. This was a time of idealistic notions of “pure” open source, unsullied by commercial aspirations. To me, Dr. Richard Stallman embodied that time; if you were to make an analogy to history, it was akin to the 1960s era in the U.S.
From that era, let’s zoom to sometime in the early 2000s when we moved to what I call the “Big Brother era” of open source. In this era, open source projects were owned and managed by one vendor, for all intents and purposes. The project could have a vibrant community, but ultimately, it was the managing vendor or “Big Brother” who reaped most of the rewards. This made it difficult for multiple tool vendors to support the same project and stifled progress.
The dawn of the foundation era of open source changed all that, and we have seen transformational growth as a result. But nothing lasts forever—and I think the king of the hill may be on the way down. Why do I say this? Here are several events/trends I’ve noticed recently that lead me to believe this. Some of these things I was told in confidence, so I cannot reveal names to protect the innocent.
What does this mean for open source software and you? Well, in the near term, if you are just a consumer of open source software, probably not much will change day-to-day. You may have to cough up some money if you want access to source code or support from the community. Bigger picture, though, is the winds of change are blowing. I think we are going to see more companies taking a Hashi-type approach to protecting their source code. This will result in more forks of open source projects. However, my experience is that most open source forks don’t succeed (with some notable exceptions—like Jenkins forked from Hudson). Companies who are building businesses around open source models will be the most at risk. I think an open core business model may be the best bet for an open source vendor. I think the future of NFPs as the stewards of open source may become a bit cloudy (no pun intended). What will take its place or fill the void? That remains to be seen.
For the record I was never a fan of that old Irish proverb, “May you live in interesting times.” This kind of upheaval is a little too interesting for me. But one thing I have learned in 30 years in tech (and more than that in life) is that change is constant. You can embrace it and thrive or shrivel and die.
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